2024 US Election Polls: Trump vs. Harris in the Final Push to Victory

2024 US Election – After months of polls, fluctuating betting markets, and debates over a historic gender gap, the 2024 US Presidential Election has arrived. Voters are headed to the polls on November 5, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump vying for the White House. Over 80 million people have already cast their ballots early, and millions more will vote in person, with a focus on the key battleground states that will ultimately decide the election.

With results in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona expected to be close, the winner may not be clear on Election Night, as late-counted mail-in ballots could delay the final tally.

In what promises to be a nail-biting finish, here are six critical factors that will likely influence whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump emerges victorious.

The Gender Gap: Will Women Swing the Election for Harris?

The 2024 presidential race has largely become a battle between the sexes, with Kamala Harris leading significantly among female voters, while Donald Trump holds a stronger support base among male voters. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll taken from October 14 to 18 found that Harris leads by 53%-36% among women, while Trump holds a 53%-37% advantage with men. Given that women tend to vote at slightly higher rates than men, this gender gap could give Harris a critical edge.

The abortion debate, particularly in the wake of the Roe v. Wade reversal, has been a central issue for many female voters. Harris’ campaign has focused on securing a strong turnout from women to help propel her to victory. Early-voting data suggests that women are already outpacing men by 9 percentage points, mirroring trends from the 2020 election, when Joe Biden defeated Trump.

Trump’s Appeal to Young, College-Non-educated Men

To counter Harris’ dominance among women, Donald Trump has aimed to rally young men, particularly those without a college degree. The Trump campaign has targeted this demographic through various media, including appearances at UFC fights, college football games, and interviews with influencers like Joe Rogan and Logan Paul. Trump’s effort to connect with younger, undecided male voters—which make up around 11% of the electorate in key battleground states—has been a central pillar of his campaign. Many of these voters are less politically engaged and historically have lower turnout rates, so Trump’s success hinges on motivating them to vote.

A Silver Surge: Will Older Women Favor Harris?

The senior vote, particularly among older women, could prove pivotal for Harris. Although Democrats have struggled to win over older voters in presidential elections since Al Gore in 2000, recent polling suggests Harris may be able to turn this around. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from October found Harris leading among voters aged 65 and older by 46%-44% nationally.

More strikingly, a AARP poll conducted in late September found Harris leading by a larger margin among senior women, at 54%-42%. Many senior voters, especially women, are focused on issues such as Social Security, Medicare, and rising healthcare costs—but the abortion issue is also high on their list. If Harris can maintain strong support among this demographic, especially in battleground states, it could be a game-changer.

Trump’s Potential to Capture Black and Latino Voters

Polling suggests that Trump has made inroads with Black and Latino voters, two traditionally Democratic constituencies. Targeting younger male voters in urban centers such as Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee, Trump’s outreach to these communities could chip away at Harris’ support base.

In 2020, Black voters supported Biden over Trump by a massive margin of 92%-8%, while Latino voters supported Biden by 65%-32%. However, a USA TODAY/Suffolk poll in October shows that Harris’ lead among Black voters has narrowed to 72%-17%, while her lead among Latino voters has shrunk to 57%-33%.

While Harris maintains strong support from white college-educated voters, particularly in suburban areas, any erosion in support among Black and Latino voters could be counterbalanced if she can hold on to her white suburban base.

Puerto Rican Backlash Against Trump: A Game-Changer in Pennsylvania?

A recent incident during a Trump rally has fueled a backlash among Puerto Rican voters, a demographic that has become increasingly important in Pennsylvania. After comedian Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage,” a strong negative reaction emerged among Latino and Puerto Rican voters.

In Pennsylvania, which has a growing Latino population, including over 600,000 eligible Puerto Rican voters, the backlash against Trump’s rhetoric could swing the state in favor of Harris. A recent poll found Harris leading Latino voters in Pennsylvania by 64%-30%, and Puerto Rican voters by 67%-27%. With Pennsylvania being a crucial swing state, this demographic could play a decisive role in Harris’ victory.

The Blue Wall: Will Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin Hold for Harris?

The so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin has been a key battleground in recent elections. These Rust Belt states have been critical in determining the outcome of past presidential races, and they are once again in focus this year.

If Harris can win all three of these states, she could still secure a victory even if she loses other battleground states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada. In such a scenario, Harris would likely win the Electoral College by 270-268. However, if Trump manages to flip any of these states, particularly Pennsylvania, he could chart a path to victory by winning these key states along with strong performances in the Sun Belt.

The 2024 Election Will Be a Nail-Biter

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump prepare for what is expected to be a historic and highly contentious election day, voters in key battleground states will ultimately decide the future of the United States. Whether Harris’ lead among women and seniors proves to be decisive or Trump’s outreach to younger men and minority voters sways the outcome, the 2024 election will come down to razor-thin margins and an unpredictable political landscape. As late ballots are counted and results from crucial states like Pennsylvania and Michigan come in, it could be days before we know who will claim victory. One thing is certain: the outcome of this election will shape not only the future of the United States but also the direction of crypto policy, economic strategy, and global relations for years to come.